van der Vaart: Spain Will Win But Messi Is True Difference Maker

Former Real Madrid and Tottenham midfielder Rafael van der Vaart is backing Spain to beat Argentina 2-1 in Sunday’s World Cup final, with Lionel Messi grabbing a consolation before La Roja get the job done. The Dutchman is bracing for a tight, tactical clash at MetLife Stadium between the reigning European champions and the defending world champions, in a showpiece he frames as Spain against Messi.

Speaking exclusively to AceOdds.com, the 109-cap Netherlands great previewed a final between Luis de la Fuente’s possession machine and a Lionel Scaloni side aiming to become the first nation to retain the trophy since Brazil (1958 and 1962).

van der Vaart’s half-Spanish heart pulls one way

The final sees Spain back in the showpiece for the first time since their 2010 triumph over the Netherlands, up against an Argentina outfit that has gone the distance in New Jersey with a perfect knockout record. Torn between the country of his birth and the country of his father, van der Vaart lets his loyalties tip his forecast.

“I'm half Spanish, so, and I'm gonna watch the final here in the hotel, in Spain. So let's say 2-1. 1 goal by Messi, but then, Spain will win 2-1.”

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Spain finally clicked against France, but Yamal must stand up

La Roja reached the final by dismantling France 2-0. Mikel Oyarzabal converted a penalty won by Lamine Yamal before Pedro Porro sealed it in the 58th minute. The Dutchman was won over by the directness on show against Les Bleus, while making clear that one teenager still has another gear to find.

“I have to say that Spain against France, they finally performed at their level because I think this tiki taka and never going towards the goal is quite boring, but against France they had some great attacks. And still, there's one player who didn't reach his level, and it's Lamine Yamal. So I really hope that he and his team mates are at their best in the final, and it will also be nice if a 19 year old like Yamal can reach the final and then play his best game.”

The 19-year-old’s trajectory since bursting onto the scene at Euro 2024 has been relentless, and van der Vaart senses the biggest stage of all could be the making of him.

“You can see that he is getting better and better and in the semi finals he played his best game yet but now he has to stand up.”

Why Messi can still unlock Spain’s structure

Argentina arrived in the final the hard way, Messi conjuring two assists in the closing stages to turn a 2-1 deficit into victory over England, with Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez the beneficiaries. Asked whether the 39-year-old still has the craft to prise open a defence as organised as this Spain side, van der Vaart pointed to a reputation forged over a glittering Barcelona career.

“He played for Barca for many years and everybody is scared of Messi so he has what it takes to break down Spain's structure. Everybody knows him, respects him a lot, but for me, the reason why he can open up Spain is because like France, they're all strong, quick, and good, but Messi can open up teams with passes and with dribbling.”

For all of Spain’s collective strength on the ball, van der Vaart argues that Argentina carry the tournament’s one true difference-maker.

“So imagine you play against a team where almost every player is better on the ball, but there's only one player who's much better for Argentina, so when he gets the ball, he can do the same."

That imbalance, he believes, could nudge de la Fuente’s men into a more cautious approach and turn the final into a contest built around containing a single man.

“I think that Spain also has the feeling that they have to go a little bit back. I think it's going to be a really interesting thing to see, especially as it's almost Spain against Messi. It’s going to be really important to get him on the ball.”

England managed to keep the Inter Miami forward relatively quiet for long spells in the semi-final, and still lost. For van der Vaart, that is precisely the danger.

“England did quite well against him. He was not in the game, but he always has four or five moments in every game. It doesn't matter if he played well or bad, he will always have five moments which can decide something and so you also need a little bit of luck that he's having a really bad day. Unfortunately, it's not happened that often, despite him being 39 years old. Can you believe it?”

Rodri the leader who sets Spain apart

If Messi is Argentina’s heartbeat, Rodri is Spain’s. The 2024 Ballon d’Or winner has quietly conducted La Roja from the base of midfield and now stands one win from completing a remarkable set of the World Cup, the Ballon d’Or and the Champions League. Comparing him to Arsenal’s Declan Rice, van der Vaart underlined just how much the Manchester City man’s positional discipline matters.

“Rodri is really important and you can see the difference between him and Declan Rice, for example. They play in the same position and that's massive. He is a player who always stays for the rest defense, and takes care of the rest defense. I think he's also a really nice guy and you can see that everybody accepts him as a leader, and he is so important. So t's going to be interesting in the midfield. But I don’t consider him as a contender for the ballon dÓr. But I didn’t consider him as a contender in the year he won the Ballon dÓr either. So maybe I’m overlooking something.”

Still no words for Messi

Messi remains the frontrunner for the Golden Ball and has forced his way back into the Ballon d’Or conversation, even at this stage of his career and while playing his football in Major League Soccer. The pace may have dipped, but van der Vaart insists the quality is untouched.

“Right now Messi is playing for Miami and he's still unbelievably good. There are no words for him, and he's still so good. You can see that the pace is less, but how he prepared both goals against England.. it’s something special.”

It is the economy of Messi’s game with conserving energy for the decisive instant that continues to leave the Dutchman in awe.

“It's amazing because you see him walking for 80 minutes and then when the ball gets close, he gets a little bit active and he always wants to play to the goal. I mean, everybody sees.”

Spain and Argentina meet at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, with de la Fuente’s side chasing a second world title and Scaloni’s champions bidding for a fourth – and, if van der Vaart’s reading is right, with the whole occasion likely to hinge on how tightly Spain can police the little magician in the number 10 shirt.

Romero is at his level with Tottenham

Cristian Romero has been one of the standout defenders at the tournament, and with Inter Milan and Barcelona among the clubs credited with interest, questions are mounting over whether Tottenham can hold onto him. van der Vaart, however, is not convinced a move to one of Europe's elite is necessary.

“No, I think it's OK to stay at Tottenham. His level is good, no doubt, and he's playing a great tournament. But I think that Tottenham is an amazing club for him. I think that every player for Argentina, don't get me wrong, all the other players do stand up, but for me, without Messi, they will never have reached what they reached now. not this year, not 4 years ago. It's just a normal team.”

“I also think it is good to stay with Spurs because all the Spurs defenders played an unbelievable tournament. Djed Spence, Jan Paul van Hecke, Pedro Porro, Romero. And there’s also Micky van de Ven. Spurs may have the best defense next season in the Premier League. Which is important to get back to the level they belong.”

Argentina prefer to die than to lose

On Scaloni's success in building a side that consistently punches above its weight, van der Vaart pointed to something that goes beyond tactics and footballing ability.

“When Argentina scored the 2nd goal I had goosebumps, and it was so nice to see. But you know what it is also with Argentina and it’s the real key… they really, really play for Argentina, for the whole country, for the heart. They prefer to die than to lose. And that feeling is missing in many, many, many, countries.”

“And it's also a mentality. I mean, in Holland, we did not grow up like this, that you give your life for the country, but they do. I remember I played with Juan Pablo Sorín and he was not picked and he was watching really with his Argentina shirt on and had the Argentina flags.”

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