van der Vaart backs England to beat Messi's Argentina and reach World Cup final

Rafael van der Vaart believes Lionel Messi's brilliance will not be enough to prevent England reaching a first World Cup final since 1966, with the former Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur midfielder tipping Thomas Tuchel's side to win Wednesday's semi-final 3-1.

The clash will see Tuchel's men taking on an Argentina side chasing back-to-back World Cup titles. It’s a momentous tie, almost six decades on from England's last appearance in the final and forty years removed from Diego Maradona's infamous 'Hand of God'.

Speaking exclusively to AceOdds.com before the semifinal, the 109-cap Netherlands international assessed England's chances of stopping the holders. He explained how Tuchel's side should approach the Messi problem, and weighed in on the growing tension between the England manager and Jude Bellingham following the win over Norway.

England hold the edge over Messi's Argentina

Argentina needed extra time to see off Switzerland in Kansas City, with Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez scoring late winners after Alexis Mac Allister had headed in from a Messi corner. Meanwhile, England required extra time to overcome Norway in Miami as Jude Bellingham struck twice to send Thomas Tuchel's side through. Despite both teams needing extra time to reach the last four, the Dutchman is adamant that England's greater strength in depth gives them the advantage over a side still built overwhelmingly around one player.

“Because I just see Argentina as being 80% Messi and the rest being not more than okay players, I think England will win. They have okay players, but no Harry Kane, no Jude Bellingham, so they just have a better team overall. Their defenders are strong, I really like O`Reilly as well. I think England will win 3-1.”

Among the players catching van der Vaart's eye is Nico O'Reilly. The Manchester City full-back started at left-back in England's extra-time win over Norway and has emerged as one of Tuchel's most reliable performers in the United States.

Bellingham brushes off Tuchel's post-match criticism

England's win over Norway was not without post-match drama. Thomas Tuchel, typically exacting in his standards, described his side's performance as sloppy and short of the intensity required. He admitted the Three Lions had needed a slice of fortune to get over the line. Jude Bellingham, whose double dragged England through extra time, dismissed the criticism in a single word when it was put to him by reporters. The former Birmingham City midfielder pointed towards the physical toll of facing a Norway front four built around Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa and Alexander Sørloth in stifling Miami heat. van der Vaart weighed in on the fallout and sided emphatically with Bellingham.

“This comment from Thomas Tuchel is why you don't always need to take the answers of managers seriously, you know. Imagine they had lost, then Tuchel would have gotten the same question, but his answer would have been different. Then he would have said they created so many chances and were just unlucky but that he was happy with the way they played.”

“But now, because they won, he has to keep his players’ feet on the ground, which is typical coaching style. Which I understand.”

He was similarly full of praise for how Bellingham handled the scrutiny.

“I liked the reaction from Jude Bellingham and his reaction was just like, yeah whatever we got through and did everything, which I like. You guys as journalists should like that kind of response as well because today you always know what the players are going to say in their interviews.”

The former Spurs midfielder went a step further, hailing the England midfielder's honesty as a breath of fresh air in an era of media-trained answers.

“This interview was something else. Something different. You have to respect that and for me it was a joy to watch it, because finally a player just said whatever he was thinking and he didn't care at all about what Tuchel had been saying.”

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How England can nullify Messi's threat

At 39, Messi shows no sign of relinquishing the stage to a new generation. His corner set up Mac Allister's opener against Switzerland, stretching his own World Cup assist record to ten different team-mates. He arrives in Atlanta as the tournament's all-time leading scorer with 21 career goals at the finals. For van der Vaart, who spent his career pulling the strings from the number 10 position at Ajax, Hamburg, Real Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur, containing that threat is a collective responsibility rather than a job for one man.

“You have to handle Messi as a team. I don’t think it is wise to just put one player on him and I have to say that England is the favourite, because without Messi Argentina would have been knocked out in the group stages.”

“Messi is the main thing but you can’t stop him if you are just putting one man on him. He is still so quick in the acceleration and even if he is not playing his best game he will still score or make an assist.”

Even so, van der Vaart refuses to be swept up in the hype around Argentina as a collective, insisting the pressure remains on Lionel Scaloni's side rather than England.

“Messi is just Messi. But if England can play at their normal level, they will go through. I am not impressed with Argentina but Messi is fantastic, obviously.”

Few Europeans have experienced Messi's menace from as close a range as van der Vaart, who faced him regularly during Clásicos while at Real Madrid.

“I played against Messi and normally you would say that it is fantastic to experience, but you know what… It is not nice at all to play against him. I was an okay player but then you start feeling when you are playing against him, that maybe you’re just a Sunday league player.”

One afternoon in particular has stayed with him. van der Vaart's Real Madrid were thrashed 6-2 by Messi's Barcelona at the Santiago Bernabéu, with Sergio Ramos given the unenviable task of shackling the Argentine.

“He is something special, especially when he was at his best. I remember we played Barcelona at Bernabeu and lost 2-6. We only put Sergio Ramos on him and we had no chance. The fans even at Bernabeu were applauding him and even me, I had to just applaud what he did.”

The pain of those Clásico defeats has lingered, not least because of what it cost van der Vaart at the top of La Liga.

“Ramos was also a good player and we had so many good players but that little guy, he cost me two Championships because we always finished second because he was playing for Barcelona, which was just unlucky.”

Should Tuchel be ready to sub Pickford before penalties?

At the other end of the pitch, Jordan Pickford has endured a somewhat shaky tournament in moments. Questions were raised as to whether he should have done better with Andreas Schjelderup’s goal, which put Norway 1-0.

The Everton and England number one, according to data provided by Opta, has a 17% save rate in normal and extra time for club and country. On the other hand, Dean Henderson (26%) and James Trafford (36%) fare better when facing penalties. Whether Tuchel would consider substituting one of Henderson or Trafford remains to be seen.

It would follow two recent precedents at tournaments: firstly, the Netherlands' decision to send on Tim Krul for Jasper Cillessen ahead of their 2014 quarter-final shootout win over Costa Rica. Secondly, during this tournament, Australia decided to replace Patrick Beach with Mathew Ryan before their round-of-32 exit to Egypt. van der Vaart, who has seen plenty of shootout drama over his career, was cautious about applying a blanket rule.

"It depends because we saw Australia do that at this World Cup. In the last 10 minutes of that game, Patrick Beach had some crazy saves. Then I think, as the coach you should have the feeling - 'hey, maybe it's his game' - and then you have to leave it."

He added a note of nuance on how a manager should read the situation in the moment.

"If you have the feeling that there weren't a lot of shots, and the other goalkeeper is better for penalties, then you can change."

But the Dutchman was also clear that hooking a goalkeeper who has been in inspired form would be a mistake.

"If your keeper is pulling off saves, stopping balls headed to the top corner, then changing him is not the wise thing to do."

England and Argentina meet at Atlanta Stadium on Wednesday, with a place in Sunday's World Cup final at stake.

Read more as Rafael van der Vaart accuses FIFA of favouritism after the Balogun controversy