The £125m flop? Alexander Isak ranks as second-worst value signing in the Premier League

Every transfer window arrives with the same intoxicating promise: the game-changing superstar. Clubs shell out eye-watering sums for forwards and wingers, betting millions that a single signature can tilt the balance of power. Yet, once the excitement of the transfers fade, the reality of the pitch takes over. The question shifts from what a player costs to what they are actually doing with the ball at their feet.

By utilising a proprietary Impact Index, a weighted metric combining goals, assists, open-play chance creation, penalty-box activity and their transfer fee, we analysed the 20 most expensive attacking transfers from the last two windows. The results offer a cold look at who is justifying their price tag and who is still searching for their rhythm in a new system.

The João Pedro effect

While Stamford Bridge has seen a revolving door of talent recently, João Pedro has emerged as the clear benchmark for productivity. Topping the Index with a score of 63.51, the Brazilian has become the focal point of a shifting Chelsea frontline. His dominance isn't just about his 0.62 goals per game; it is his constant presence in the danger zone. Averaging 4.8 touches in the opposition box and creating 1.1 chances per match, Pedro offers a rare blend of clinical finishing and creative unselfishness. For a club that has recently struggled to find a consistent "Number 9," Pedro is proving to be the high-performance solution they paid for.

The chasing pack in Ekitiké and Garnacho

Narrowly trailing the top spot is Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitiké, who has posted an Index score of 61.92. The Frenchman has silenced sceptics by becoming a statistical powerhouse in the box, averaging a staggering 7.62 touches in the penalty area. His efficiency suggests that Arne Slot’s system is leaning into his predatory instincts in the box, especially in the absence of other key forwards. Surprisingly in third place is Alejandro Garnacho who remains the outlier of the group. Now wearing Chelsea blue after a high-profile move from Manchester United, the Argentine is the most direct threat in our dataset. With 7.9 box touches and 1.7 chances created per game, Garnacho is a volume-heavy creator who forces defenders into mistakes even when his individual goal tally is still catching up to his influence.

Semenyo’s instant impact

The Index highlights a clear trend where the "pure" striker is being outshone by versatile wide players who can do it all. Antoine Semenyo has been a winter masterstroke for Manchester City, ranking fourth with an Impact Index of 58.38 and averaging 0.54 goals per game for Pep Guardiola. Semenyo is currently priced at 8/5 to find the back of the net against West Ham this weekend, and if you fancy backing him to do so, you can use our free bet calculator to see how much you could stand to earn.

Just behind him is Arsenal’s Noni Madueke, who places fifth after producing some of the most aggressive attacking numbers in the group. Madueke averages 1.8 chances created per match and registers 8.9 touches inside the opposition box which is the highest figure among the top five players analysed. Chelsea’s youth movement also shows strength here, with Estêvão ranking sixth, proving that his transition to European football is moving faster than many anticipated.

The Wirtz and Isak conundrum

The data reveals a fascinating disconnect between price and immediate impact as defined by this index. Liverpool playmaker Florian Wirtz ranks ninth overall, largely thanks to his elite chance creation numbers. The German averages 2.43 chances created per game, comfortably the highest figure among the 20 players analysed, showing that his value lies in orchestration rather than just finishing. Conversely, the most expensive player in the dataset, Alexander Isak, sits 19th in the Impact Index. Despite his reputation, a record-breaking fee of £125 million has not yielded an immediate return on investment. His struggle to adapt to the demands at Anfield has made him the second-worst performing "big-money" signing in this dataset, highlighting the risk of astronomical fees.

The final verdict

Modern recruitment is no longer about finding a player who does one thing well. The Impact Index rewards the complete attacker. Those who create and occupy defenders as much as they score. As the 2025/26 season enters its business end, João Pedro isn't just another big-money signing; he is the gold standard for transfer efficiency.

Read more as former Wolves star Kevin Doyle reflects on the club's defiant surge in the Premier League