The US Open’s Most Underperforming Seed: Data Reveals a Clear Loser

When it comes to Grand Slam tennis, higher seeding usually means higher expectations. In a general sense, a top-eight seed is expected to make it to at least the quarter-finals. The US Open, however, shows that things don’t always go to plan.

The team at AceOdds has analysed the performance of all top eight seeds in the men’s and women’s singles draws at the US Open since 2000, tracking when each seed was eliminated. The results reveal a few standout underperformers.

Why Zverev Might Want to Look Away

On the men’s side, it’s the #3 seed that has the worst track record in the first round, by far. Since 2000, the #3 seed has lost in the first round five times, making it the most vulnerable of the top eight seeds at that stage.

By contrast, the #1, #5, and #6 seeds have never lost in the first round during this 25-year span.

Interestingly, the #3 seed has only been eliminated once in the second round, making it more of a "boom or bust" position, either crashing out early or making deeper runs.

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Bad News for Pegula?

On the women’s side, the #4 seed has had a surprisingly tough time in the second round, with seven losses at that stage since 2000, the most of any top-eight seed in that round.

That being said, the #4 seed has never lost in the first round, offering some small consolation.

When it comes to first-round exits, the #8 seed on the women’s side is the biggest red flag, with five first-round losses since 2000, a significant number for a seed expected to at least survive the early rounds.

Upsets in the Making?

Since 2000, the top eight seeds in the women’s draw have been knocked out in either the first or second round a total of 40 times, a notable number given that seeded players can’t face other seeds in those rounds.

For the men’s draw, early exits have occurred 36 times, meaning top eight seeds have been slightly more consistent in avoiding early upsets, but not by much.

The numbers show that even top seeds aren’t safe in New York. Whether it’s the men’s #3 seed’s surprising vulnerability in round one or the women’s #4 and #8 seeds struggling in early rounds, history suggests that big exits are more common than many expect, and might just happen again this year.

The team at AceOdds received this data exclusively from OPTA.

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