Taylor Swift US Elections Desktop

Ahead of the Presidential Election in the Autumn of 2024, there has been speculation that the Democratic Party could use Taylor Swift to gain votes. Trump supporters have pledged a ‘Holy Way’ against the star - whose high-profile romance with the Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce has brought her to the attention of the NFL fanbase, and now she has seen growing support across the swing states of the USA. But can she really sway some swing states and help shape who wins the US election?

Our research has revealed how Taylor Swift and her growing fanbase could influence the US Election with 225 electoral votes up for grabs in the so-called ‘Swing States’ of the country with four of the five ‘tossup’ states seeing higher than average searches for Taylor Swift, especially in Wisconsin, which increased by +282%.

Taylor Swift’s new (and existing) fans have sent Google searches around the popstar up by 216% across the swing states. So how could this affect the election?

By analysing search trend data over the past year, AceOdds has calculated which states have had the highest surge of Taylor Swift fans and compared them with the latest poll results and the number of electoral votes available to reveal where her influence may hold the most power in the election.

Taylor Swift fans have skyrocketed in these three Republican-leaning States

According to new data from AceOdds, Florida, Iowa, and Michigan have seen the biggest increase in Taylor Swift fans, witnessing higher than average search interest for terms relating to the megastar than the rest of the Swing States in the past year.

The three states have a total of 51 electoral votes between them, and currently, all three are considered to be either leaning or solid Republican States ahead of the election - but with growing Taylor Swift support, could this work in the Democrat's favour?

Swift’s army of fans in 2023 saw searches related to her increase 219% in Florida, while Iowa, considered ‘solid’ for the Republican party, saw a search increase of 273%. Michigan, which voted Democrat in 2020 but is considered to be leaning Republican, saw a search increase of 228% for Taylor Swift in 2023.

Which ‘Swing States’ could Taylor Swift influence the most in the 2024 US Election?

State

Annual searches

Search increase

Voting intention

Electoral votes

Latest voting intention - Democrat

Latest voting intention -Republican

Florida

21,705,960

+ 219%

Lean Republican

30

34%

45%

Iowa

3,031,320

+273%

Solid Republican

6

39%

51%

Michigan

9,801,600

+228%

Lean Republican

15

42%

47%

The ‘tossup’ states have seen the biggest growth in Taylor Swift fans than the rest of the USA

According to new data, five ‘tossup’ States could have a huge bearing on the election. Arizona, Maine, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all in the balance, but legions of Taylor Swift fans have sent searches for Swift way above the average increase in swing states (216%) in all but one state - Arizona (+185%).

While Maine and Nebraska have a smaller influence on the election, holding 4 and 5 electoral votes, data suggests fan bases have grown in this state above the Swing State average, seeing a 239% increase in searches related to Taylor Swift in Maine and a 227% increase in Nebraska.

Meanwhile, more influential states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which have 19 and 10 electoral votes, have also seen fanbases increase above average, seeing a 222% increase in Taylor Swift searches in Pennsylvania and, more impressively, a 282% increase in Wisconsin.

If the Taylor Swift effect really is as influential as it seems, this could mean a big gain for the Democrats if they can win both States. Having Taylor Swift onside could lead to giant victories.

Which ‘Swing States’ could Taylor Swift influence in the 2024 US Election?

State

Annual searches

Search increase

Voting intention

Electoral votes

Latest voting intention - Democrat

Latest voting intention - Republican

Arizona

6,649,440

+ 182%

Tossup

11

44%

47%

Maine

1,269,720

+239%

Tossup

4

28%

42%

Nebraska

2,186,400

+227%

Tossup

5

35%

53%

Pennsylvania

15,279,600

+222%

Tossup

19

42%

37%

Wisconsin

5,529,840

+282%

Tossup

10

44%

49%

Who is the favourite for the Presidential Election in 2024?

At the time of writing, the Republican Party is a slight favourite to win the election in 2024, with a 54.5% probability of success (Odds at 5/6). The Democratic Party currently has a 48.8% chance of winning the election (Odds at 21/20).

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Last Updated: 16 February 2024